US President-elect Donald Trump is making waves even before formally assuming office on January 20 next year. By intensifying his rhetoric against illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and international trade imbalances, Trump is signaling an aggressive approach to implementing his campaign promises. His recent announcements, including naming specific countries, underline a commitment to what he calls “America First” policies, potentially setting the stage for contentious diplomatic and economic relations.

Trade Wars Loom Over US Partners

On Monday, Trump pledged to impose hefty tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China. He announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, vowing to prioritize this as one of his first presidential actions. This move, aimed at addressing trade deficits, could strain relations with neighboring countries and disrupt long-standing trade agreements.

“Drugs like Fentanyl are pouring into the U.S., mostly through Mexico,” Trump alleged, while also accusing Canada of serving as a route for illegal immigrants entering the country.

Additionally, Trump proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s alleged inaction on drug trafficking as a key reason. “Until such time as they stop, my government will impose additional tariffs on all their products entering the United States,” he declared.

Implications for Trade Agreements

Mexico and Canada, two of the United States’ closest economic partners, rely heavily on the American market. In 2023, more than 83% of Mexican exports and 75% of Canadian exports were destined for the U.S. Trump’s proposed tariffs, however, would appear to violate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a deal he himself signed into law in 2020. This agreement promotes largely duty-free trade among the three nations and has been a cornerstone of economic stability in the region.

If these tariffs are implemented, they could spark retaliatory measures, threatening economic partnerships and possibly plunging the region into a trade war.

China Responds to Tariff Threats

Trump’s escalating rhetoric against China has also drawn sharp responses from Beijing. A spokesperson from the Chinese embassy in Washington warned, “No one will win a trade war or a tariff war.” Trump’s threats to end China’s most-favored-nation trading status and impose tariffs exceeding 60% represent a significant escalation from his first term, when tariff battles disrupted global markets.

China’s economy, already grappling with a prolonged property downturn, debt risks, and weak domestic demand, may find itself vulnerable if the proposed tariffs come into effect. However, Beijing’s countermeasures could also destabilize global supply chains and further strain U.S.-China relations.

A Tough Road Ahead

Trump’s pre-presidency announcements demonstrate his intent to swiftly act on his campaign promises. However, these proposals carry significant risks—legal challenges from trade partners, possible violations of international agreements, and the economic fallout of strained relations.

With Trump set to take office, the world watches closely as the United States prepares to navigate a potentially turbulent period in trade and foreign policy. Whether these policies will achieve the intended goals of curbing illegal immigration and addressing trade imbalances remains to be seen. For now, however, Trump appears determined to push forward with his hardline stance, regardless of the consequences.

The U.S. appears to be accelerating diplomatic efforts to address escalating Middle East tensions, signaling a “do it now or face it later” approach. This sentiment was echoed through significant backchannel meetings and proposals aimed at easing the multifaceted Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah conflict and broader regional instability.

On November 11, tech billionaire Elon Musk, known for his close ties to President-elect Donald Trump, held a covert meeting with Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani. The meeting, described by Iranian sources as “positive,” lasted over an hour at a secret location. While details remain sparse, The New York Times reported the encounter as a critical first step in fostering U.S.-Iran diplomacy under the incoming administration.

The Musk-Iravani dialogue hints at a departure from the more aggressive policies of the Republican establishment and could serve as a precursor to integrating Iran digitally with the global community, potentially through Musk’s X platform. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has previously expressed openness to mending ties with the West, adding further weight to this engagement.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is pursuing last-ditch efforts to mediate between Lebanon and Israel. On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea presented a draft truce proposal to Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Sources indicate this is Washington’s first formal written attempt in weeks to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

The U.S. Embassy in Beirut confirmed ongoing diplomatic efforts, while Israel’s Energy Minister highlighted an increasingly promising outlook for a ceasefire. In a parallel development, senior Lebanese officials signaled Hezbollah’s willingness to withdraw forces from the Israeli border under specific conditions.

Ali Hassan Khalil, a key Lebanese negotiator, revealed to Al Jazeera that talks involving U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein have led to preliminary agreements. However, Israel remains firm on retaining freedom of military action near the border, a sticking point Lebanon has rejected.

This renewed diplomatic push comes amid relentless violence. Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed over 3,386 people since October 7, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, while Hezbollah attacks have claimed around 100 lives in Israel. Israel has intensified its military campaign in Lebanon alongside its operations in Gaza, leaving large parts of Beirut and southern Lebanon in ruins.

Key to any ceasefire is adherence to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for Hezbollah to withdraw fighters and weapons from border areas. The U.S. and other powers view this resolution as the foundation for peace, though its implementation remains fraught with challenges.

With Trump poised to assume office in January, the U.S. appears intent on securing progress in the region, balancing diplomatic overtures with pressure. Whether these efforts will translate into lasting peace or a temporary reprieve remains uncertain.

For now, the Middle East remains a focal point of global attention, as the interplay of diplomacy, conflict, and shifting alliances unfolds.